Saturday, April 9, 2011

Market action depends on crude price

Based on pivot point analysis the target for 11-Apr-11 can be calculated. As technical analysis suggests that if Nifty opens above 5863.6 then we should go for long otherwise vice-versa. But Nifty analysis based on Stop and Reverse( SAR) method will be updated hourly basis.
Pivot Analysis 8th Apr-2011
 But technical analysis says SAR_C has been broken for 11th Apr too,SAR_C for 11th Apr is 5845.4, depending on 8th Apr closing which was 5842. Even on 8th Apr, Nifty low was 5822, which also broke SAR_C of 5825. Hence as there is a break in SAR_C, so investors may go for 'stop' and 'reverse' their positions if they have take long positions. But we have to believe a single analysis where SAR method is strictly on trending market but not full-proof.
So what is going to happen on next week ?
Next week is a very curtailed form due to two holidays on Tuesday(Ram Navami) and Thursday(Ambedkar Jayanti). In global front, Nymex crude is on $113 and Brent crossed $126 which are new highs, USDollar is toxic and investors are conservative in buying greenback. ECB raisd interest rate and inflation is also tension in EU and US region.In domestic front also, boiling crude adds a lot of worries. Finance Minister, Mr. Pranab Mukherjee's optimistic budget speech was to drag down fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP and  Govt. of India is paying almost Rs. 1.9 lakh crore subsidy when oil was $80 per barrel.The subsidy may surpass very easily and take to Rs.4.8 lakh crore and will impact highly to current account deficit.

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