Nifty is in uptrend?



Fibonacci Points



Yesterday Nifty filled the gap (The gap between day before yesterday's high and yesterday's low; No blog was been written on yesterday) and moved towards 5850 level. See technical analysis for more details.If we check Fibo retracement level as of today considering high of 5923 and today's low of 5760, then after yesterday we are already at 50% to 61.8% retracement level. If we consider it as a pull back and uptrending market, Nifty has to stay above R1 that is 5886. If today Nifty goes down below pivot of 5823 then we can see some short openings below 5798 level. We can trade as per CAM(Camarilla levels) levels too for today.



Cam levels for today

The CAM level suggests if Nifty moves between R3 and R4 then short at the R3 level with a Stop Loss at R4 level. If Nifty goes below S3 but stays within S4 then long can be taken with a Stop Loss of S4. But if Nifty breaks S4, then its a dropping zone and better to go short without any filter. On the upper side also, if Nifty breaks R4 then go for long without any filter. But all the trades has to be seen at 5 mins delay basis, means wait for 5 mins at the levels and then decide. For multibagger advices must visit our options page and stock advice page.

Market pauses at support of 5701

Market has closed today above day's pivot of 5732.See our technical analysis for details. Market tried to crawl back to initial resistence of 5771 but stuck at 5767. It will try to attempt 5786 or 5810 or it may come down to 5665. This kind of pause normally shows downward bias or one more day at pause status.

Fibonacci Retracement
Retracement Level	Price
23.6%	5741.38
38.2%	5771.31
50%	5795.5
61.8%	5819.69

As per Fibonacci retracement level of yesterday today market closed at 5740 which was 28% of yesterday's fibo retracement level.

Market at below 200SMA

Market today closed below 200sma mark of 5737. Market also closed far below of daily pivot (5783)  and hourly pivot point. See technical analysis for more details. Nifty support is at 5717 and resistence is at 5844. Market looks weak and may lose few more points. In the meantime S&P has downgraded US Debt outlook to 'negative' from 'stable'. US market fell 1.8% and Europe is down by almost 2.1%.

Fibonacci Retracement
Retracement Level	Price
23.6%	5763.536
38.2%	5789.232
50%	5810
61.8%	5830.768

If we see the Fibonacci retracement today we can find @23.6%  at 5763 and then @38.2% at 5789. If Nifty stays below daily pivot of 5783 then we can see short building at lower levels of 5670 otherwise we can see longs at 5810 levels.

Market stuck at critical support

Infosys result has put market into a critical support level of 5795. The result has clearly indicated that for coming 2 qtrs the Rupee EPS from IT sector should be estimated down and there by the profit level too. But market didn't take the sudden resignation of two of the directors of Infosys. Even the Call OI has gone to 6.23% which means that there is aggressive Call writing at 5800 and 5900 level. Put OI has come down means Put options buying is substantially high.

CALL OI +6.23%
PUT OI -3.17%
call
SR.. BOD OI. Cur oi. Diff... Percent
5600 1004750 956150 -48600 -5.28
5700 2363650 2387400 23750 -0.52
5800 3929250 4646600 717350 20.21
5900 5349700 5847450 497750 18.04
6000 7553300 7729750 176450 2.16

put
SR.. BOD OI. Cur oi. .Diff... Percent
5600 5482150 5545650 63500 1.73
5700 7443650 7072000 -371650 -7.81
5800 6773050 6109550 -663500 -8.68
5900 5021300 3666850 -1354450 -32.9
6000 2600150 2206150 -394000 -20.6

Daily chart suggest that initial support is 5778 and resistence is 5878. Follow our technical analysis for more details. But

Nifty Volatility and Trading range for 15th April

Symbol NIFTY
Underlying Close Price (A)
Underlying Previous Day Close Price (B)
Underlying Log Returns (C) = LN(A/B)
Previous Day Underlying Volatility (D)
Current Day Underlying Daily Volatility (E) = Sqrt(0.94*D*D + 0.06*C*C)
Underlying Annualised Volatility (F) = E*Sqrt(365)
Range = A * E




Volatility Calculation

   Nifty on 15th April may trade in a range from 5848 to 5974. But look for technical analysis details too. Infosys results also impact Nifty in long term.

Market Technicals



Pivot analysis at 12-00

 Open Interest for Nifty put options of 5700 and 5800 are 13.06 and 35.79 respectively. So it's clear that market will have a good upmove intraday. Now how much upmove will happen will be determined by the hourly pivot analysis.

Market News

Market to open in a softer mode after a day break in line with global markets.
Please check out technical analysis for more details.
Market today suggests that initial support for Nifty is 5765 and 5745.

Low Risk Investment Advice

Few months ago during January 2011, Indian market saw some pressure in equity markets. The FIIs also took out huge amount of money from the market. Check for latest stock advice for multibagging options.

Market action depends on crude price

Based on pivot point analysis the target for 11-Apr-11 can be calculated. As technical analysis suggests that if Nifty opens above 5863.6 then we should go for long otherwise vice-versa. But Nifty analysis based on Stop and Reverse( SAR) method will be updated hourly basis.

Pivot Analysis 8th Apr-2011

 But technical analysis says SAR_C has been broken for 11th Apr too,SAR_C for 11th Apr is 5845.4, depending on 8th Apr closing which was 5842. Even on 8th Apr, Nifty low was 5822, which also broke SAR_C of 5825. Hence as there is a break in SAR_C, so investors may go for 'stop' and 'reverse' their positions if they have take long positions. But we have to believe a single analysis where SAR method is strictly on trending market but not full-proof.
So what is going to happen on next week ?

Market at Close

As I have given Buy Call on BLUEDART and it showed phenomenal performance today though market was bearish.

Market now

Asian market has started in green today keeping aside the issue related to earthquakes(after shocks) in Japan last night.

ECB rate hike expected

Pressure on inflation coming soon due to commodity prices in European region. So ECB is looking for rate hike after 3 years where market was enjoying stimulas.

RBI to hike rate on May?

Banking Industry looking that inflation rate will come down but there are some pressures on interest rate depending on the liquidity conditions.Banknifty is down. Oil will definitely add more ticks to current inflation factor. UCO bank expecting there will be 25 bps hike in CRR by Reserve bank of India.